The
Hubbert curve is an approximation of the production rate of a resource over time. It is a symmetric
logistic distribution curve, often confused with the "normal"
gaussian function. It first appeared in "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels," geologist
M. King Hubbert's 1956 presentation to the American Petroleum Institute, as an idealized symmetric curve, during his tenure at the
Shell Oil Company. It has gained a high degree of popularity in the scientific community for predicting the depletion of various natural resources. The curve is the main component of
Hubbert peak theory, which has led to the rise of
peak oil concerns.