autoregressive model

In statistics and signal processing, an autoregressive (AR) model is a representation of a type of random process; as such, it describes certain time-varying processes in nature, economics, etc. The autoregressive model specifies that the output variable depends linearly on its own previous values and on a stochastic term (a stochastic—an imperfectly predictable—term); thus the model is in the form of a stochastic difference equation. It is a special case of the more general ARMA model of time series, which has a more complicated stochastic structure; it is also a special case of the vector autoregressive model (VAR), which consists of a system of more than one stochastic difference equation.